Module 1.1

Betting Basics

This module provides an introduction to sports betting, covering essential concepts such as odds, types of bets, and commonly used terminology.

Duration: 10 - 15 minutes

Sports Betting and Bookmakers

Sports betting is the act of placing money on the outcome of a sporting event.

The service that facilitates this is called a bookmaker or sportsbook (the terms are used interchangeably). Their main role is to set odds, accept bets, and pay out winnings to successful bettors.

Module 1.2

Betting Basics

Understanding Odds

Odds represent the likelihood of an event happening and determine how much you can win from a bet. Higher odds mean a less likely event but a bigger payout, while lower odds indicate a more likely event with a smaller payout.

Odds Formats

Odds come in different formats - decimal (e.g. 2.50), fractional (e.g. 5/2) and American (e.g. +150).

Module 1.3

Betting Basics

Types of Bets

When you think of placing a bet on a game, you likely think of a bet on one team to win. For example the New Orleans Pelicans to win against the Atlanta Hawks. This is one type of betting called moneyline betting , however, many more types of bets exist. We will cover the 6 main types of bets you will run into, along with 3 more complex types.

Module 1.4

Multis

A multi bet (also known as a parlay or accumulator) is a wager that combines multiple individual bets into a single bet. Any of the previously discussed bet types can be included in a multi. By combining bets, multis significantly increase the potential payout by multiplying the odds of each selection (called legs). However, they also increase the risk—every individual bet within the multi must win for the overall bet to be successful.

Module 1.5

Betting Basics

Glossary

Bankroll

The money you set aside just for sports betting. It’s your budget for placing bets and is an essential factor in managing risk.

Stake

The amount of money placed on a bet. Also referred to as “wager”, “bet size” or “bet amount”.

Odds

A number representing how much you can win from a bet. It can be displayed as a decimal (e.g. 2.5), a fraction (e.g. 6/4) or American odds (e.g. +150).

Payout

The total money you receive after winning a bet. This figure includes your stake and your profit.

Line

A line often refers to a handicap bet, such as Team A +5.5, which means Team A is effectively given an advantage of 5.5 points for betting purposes. This implies that Team A would “win” the bet if they either win the game outright or lose by fewer than 6 points. The term line can also be used more generally to describe any game metric, such as the total goals line in a game (e.g., over 6.5 goals), which means betting on whether the total goals scored by both teams will be over or under 6.5.

Moneyline

A bet on who will win the game. Also referred to as “Head to Head” or “Match Betting”.

Points Spread

A bet on the margin of victory or defeat. Also referred to as “Handicap” or just “Spread”.

Player Prop

A player prop (short for “proposition bet”) is a type of bet focused on the performance of an individual player rather than the outcome of the game.

Multi

A bet that combines multiple individual bets into one single bet. Also called a “Parlay” or “Accumulator”.

Push

When a bet ends in a tie, and the stake is refunded. Often seen in “flat lines” (e.g., over 6 points) where the game may finish with exactly a total of 6 points.

Module 2.1

Advantaged Betting Basics

Module 2

This module provides a foundation of profitable sports betting. The concepts and methods detailed in this module underpin all advantaged betting strategies.

Duration: 10 - 15 minutes

The Myth of Predicting Winners

The outcome of any event is never certain. Underdogs win, top players have off days, and longshots sometimes come through. This unpredictability is why the idea that someone can perfectly predict winners is a myth and why the job of a bookmaker is simply to calculate probabilities as accurately as possible.

The Art Of Bookmaking

Bookmakers invest millions to make these predictions as accurate as possible. They hire experts to monitor news, use advanced prediction models, and analyse large datasets of historical data. With this in mind, ask yourself: Can I predict the outcome of an event more accurately than a bookmaker? Probably not.

Module 2.2

Advantaged Betting Basics

Now that we understand the role of bookmakers, how do they actually make money? This is where the concept of 'vig,' or bookmaker margin, comes into play. Vig is essentially the commission bookmakers earn on every bet. Rather than charging a direct fee, they build their profit into the odds they offer. For example, imagine a bookmaker predicts a team has a 50% chance of winning a match. The fair odds for this would be 2.00. However, instead of offering 2.00, they might offer 1.90 - making the odds 5% worse than the fair value. This subtle adjustment ensures that, over time, bookmakers make money regardless of the outcome. By consistently offering odds slightly worse than fair, they create a built-in profit margin.

How Much Do They Make?

To understand how effective adding vig to odds is, lets investigate how much popular bookmakers make.

Bet365: $4.99 Billion AUD

Sportsbet: $2.24 Billion AUD

Fanduel: $4.75 Billion AUD

In the Sportsbet financial report we can see a 11.2% net revenue margin which we can approximately translate into the average vig in Sportsbet's odds.

Gambling is a Losing Game

With all this in mind it's no wonder sports betting is viewed as a losing game and why the saying "the house always wins" exists. It’s certainly possible to make money in the short term, but over the long run, you’re likely to lose because you’re not being paid the fair value for your wins. If you want to win the long run, you need an edge.

Sports Betting Edge

An edge shifts the odds in our favor, giving us better value than the sportsbook. While insider information can provide an edge, it’s nearly impossible for most people to outsmart billion-dollar companies. That leaves only one option. A mathematical edge. Your friend—or a betting group on Telegram—might claim to have a "winning sports betting strategy," complete with a photo of a big win as proof. It sounds convincing, but can they show consistent profit over 100 bets or mathematically prove their strategy works? Long-term success in sports betting comes down to one key factor: ensuring every bet you place has an edge. Sounds good, but how can you bet with an edge?

Module 2.3

Advantaged Betting Basics

The Bookmaker Edge

To understand how to bet with an edge, we first need to take a step back and fully grasp the concept of vig - the edge bookmakers have over us. Don’t worry, it involves just a bit of basic math. If you made it through primary school, you’ll be able to handle this easily!

In the example above, the odds are San Antonio Spurs at 4.20 and New York Knicks at 1.25. To calculate the vig, we simply add the inverse of each set of odds together.

( 1 / odds 1 + 1 / odds 2 - 1 ) x 100%

( 1 / 4.2 + 1 / 1.25 - 1 ) x 100%

= 3.81%

From this calculation, we can see that the bookmaker has a 3.81% vig on this market, meaning they hold a 3.81% edge over us. Next, we can determine what the odds would look like if the bookmaker were offering fair, vig-free odds for this event

( 1 / odds 1 + 1 / odds 2 - 1 ) x odds 1

( 1 / 4.2 + 1 / 1.25 - 1 ) x 4.2

= 4.36

The vig-free odds for the Spurs would be 4.36 and 1.3 for the Knicks.

For markets with three possible outcomes, like a soccer match, we apply the same method but include the odds for the draw as well.

( 1 / odds 1 + 1 / odds 2 + 1 / odds 3 - 1 ) x 100%

( 1 / 1.33 + 1 / 5.50 + 1 / 7.50 - 1 ) x 100%

= 6.70%

This method works for any market where all possible outcomes are covered. Head to a bookmaker and give it a try!

Module 2.4

Advantaged Betting Basics

The Facts

In this module, we’ve learned that bookmakers make money through an inbuilt edge called vig. They invest heavily in systems to accurately predict event probabilities, and this strategy earns them billions in revenue.

What Doesn't Work

• Betting on 'intuition' or opinion - bookmakers have access to far more data and expertise than you do.
• Following a tipster group, based on their own opinion - bookmakers have far more data and expertise than the tipsters.
• Following a tipster group and placing bets at lower odds than they show.
• Betting on 'AI Picks' - used simply as a marketing gimic, don't trust.
• Relying on a service that claims to use a "complex machine learning model" - bookmakers have far more advanced systems backed by significantly larger resources and budgets.

What Works

• Getting insider information - information that bookmakers don't have.
• Betting on mispriced or slow odds using a system that rigorously exploits these opportunities.

WagerWise

WagerWise is built on proven methods. We offer strategies designed to capitalise on mispriced and slow odds, giving you a genuine edge to overcome bookmaker vig. Our approach is grounded in transparent and rigorous mathematics, ensuring reliability and consistency.

Module 2.5

Advantaged Betting Basics

Profitable Strategies

The next 4 modules walk through the theory and application of profitable advantaged betting strategies. WagerWise offers arbitrage betting, bonus bet conversion, positive ev betting and middle betting.

Module 2.6

Advantaged Betting Basics

The Catch

Bookmakers aren't in the business of letting you take money from them. Once they know that you are a 'sharp' better or someone who can consistently make money from them, their treatment of you changes. They go from offering deposit bonuses, special promotions and allowing you to stake large amounts to removing promotions, restricting the amount you can bet and trying everything they can to stop you betting. This is the nature of following advantaged betting strategies.

The Good News

The good news is that there is techniques to stay under the radar and appear as a regular better. These techniques will be detailed in our advanced tutorial series (coming soon).

Module 3.1

Arbitrage Betting

Module 3

This module provides an introduction to arbitrage betting, guiding you through the process of placing your first bet step-by-step.

Duration: 5 - 10 minutes

Hard to believe

Module 3.2

Arbitrage Betting

Hedge Betting

Arbitrage betting works through hedge betting, which means placing multiple bets to cover all possible outcomes of an event.Here are some examples to make it clearer.

Module 3.3

Arbitrage Betting

When Hedge Betting is Profitable

In all the previous hedge betting examples, you would guaranteed lose money because bookmakers build a margin into their odds.To calculate exactly how much you would lose, add the inverse of the odds for all outcomes and convert the total into a percentage.

( 1 / ( 1 / odds 1 + 1 / odds 2 ) - 1 ) x 100%

Example

( 1 / ( 1 / 3.95 + 1 / 1.18 ) - 1 ) x 100%

= -9.14%

If you placed one bet on Texas Longhorns and another on Auburn Tigers with the same bookmaker, you’d just be betting into their vig, guaranteeing a 9.14% loss on your total stake. This is expected—bookmakers don’t offer guaranteed profits within their own markets. The key to arbitrage betting is placing your bets across different bookmakers, where odds vary enough to create a risk-free profit.

Arbitrage Example

Here’s an example using Cam Akers' total rushing yards: • One bookmaker offers under 24.5 yards at 1.85 • Another bookmaker offers over 24.5 yards at 2.3

( 1 / ( 1 / 1.85 + 1 / 2.30 ) - 1 ) x 100%

= 2.53%

Using the previous equation, we calculated a 2.53% guaranteed profit. To summarize: We are betting on both over 24.5 and under 24.5 rushing yards for Cam Akers, covering all possible outcomes and securing a 2.53% profit on our total stake.

Module 3.4

Arbitrage Betting

The Arbitrage Betting Strategy Explained

Arbitrage betting works by placing bets on all outcomes at different bookmakers, ensuring a guaranteed profit. Arbitrage opportunities arise when odds differences between bookmakers are large enough to overcome the bookmaker's vig. The final key to arbitrage betting is stake sizing. To lock in a profit, you must calculate the exact amount to bet on each outcome. Our arbitrage calculator makes this easy.

Arbitrage Calculator

Arbitrage opportunities are rare because bookmakers don’t like giving away risk-free money. To take advantage of them, you need to analyze thousands of odds and place bets quickly before the odds change. That’s where the WagerWise Arbitrage Software comes in. Our system scrapes thousands of odds per minute, identifies arbitrage opportunities, and automatically calculates the optimal stake sizes - so you don’t have to.

Module 3.5

Arbitrage Betting

Placing Arbitrage Bets

Now that you understand the concepts behind arbitrage bettings, lets get into how you can actually arbitrage bet yourself with the WagerWise Arbitrage Software.

Module 3.6

Arbitrage Betting

You now have everything you need to start arbitrage betting! Try placing an arbitrage bet yourself and get familiar with the WagerWise Arbitrage Software.

Arbitrage

Once you're comfortable with arbitrage betting, you can move on to our Advanced Hedge Betting Module(coming soon). This module covers unique scenarios you may encounter and techniques to maximize profits.

Module 4.1

Bonus Bet Conversion

Module 4

This module teaches you how to lock in profits from bonus bets, making it the easiest profit you'll earn in your advantaged betting journey.

Duration: 5 - 10 minutes

Bonus Bets?

Bonus bets can be thought of a special type of currency that bookmakers offer. They are obtained from betting on promotional events and via depositing money on their service

Bonus bets have a few unique features when compared with your regular cash balance.

• Bonus bets can't be directly withdrawn - they must first be converted into regular cash by betting with them and then withdrawing the subsequent profits
• onus bets have a lower payout - only the profit from the win with a bonus bet is paid out, not the initial value of the bonus bet.
• Bonus bets expire - after receiving a bonus bet, it is common for it to be valid for only 1 week.

Value Of Bonus Bets

As mentioned, bonus bets can be earned through deposit and sign-up offers, making them the easiest profit in advantaged betting. By simply depositing funds, receiving bonus bets, and converting them into real cash, you can unlock over $1,000 in sign-up bonuses available in Australia. Mastering bonus bet conversion also opens the door to promotional and matched betting, a very lucrative subset of advantaged betting.

Module4.2

Bonus Bet Conversion

Arbitrage With A Difference

Converting bonus bets works similarly to arbitrage betting, using a hedge bet to lock in guaranteed profit. The key difference is that bonus bets aren’t treated like cash - when a bonus bet wins, only the profit is paid out, not the original bonus amount. This requires adjusting your hedge bet to ensure a profitable conversion.

Converting A Bonus

Let’s look at an example of converting a $100 bonus bet into real cash.

• We place a $100 bonus bet at PointsBet on under 16.5 at 5.5 odds.
• We place a $360 hedge bet at Bet365 on over 16.5 at 1.25 odds.

If PointsBet wins:

• We receive $450 (5.5 × $100 - $100 bonus not returned)
• We lose $360 at Bet365.

net profit: $90.

If Bet365 wins:

• We profit $90 from our hedge bet. We lose nothing on the PointsBet side (since it was a bonus bet).

Net profit: $90.

Since we profit $90 no matter what, this is a guaranteed conversion of the bonus bet into cash.

Retention

In the previous example we profited $90 from a $100 bonus bet. We can say we converted the bonus bet at 90% retention. To calculate retention we can divide the profit by the bonus value and multiply by 100%.

Retention = Profit / Bonus Value * 100%

To maximize the value of a bonus bet, we should aim for high retention conversions, ideally 80% or higher. This ensures we extract as much cash as possible from the bonus. To make this process easier, we've created a Bonus Bet Conversion Calculator that helps you calculate retention and stake sizing for optimal conversions.

Bonus Bet Calculator

Module4.3

Bonus Bet Conversion

Placing Bonus Bet Conversion Bets

Now that you grasp the concepts of converting bonus bets, let’s dive into how you can actually do it using the WagerWise Bonus Bet Conversion Software.

Module 4.4

Bonus Bet

Next Steps

You now have everything you need to start converting bonus bets! Try converting a bonus bet yourself and get familiar with the WagerWise Bonus Bet Conversion Software. If you haven’t signed up with any bookmakers yet, starting with sign-up bonuses is the best first step in your advantaged betting journey.

Bonus Bets

Once you're comfortable with bonus bet conversion, you can move on to our Advanced Hedge Betting Module (coming soon). This module covers unique scenarios you may encounter and techniques to maximize profits.

Module 5.1

Positive EV Betting

Module 5

This module covers the positive EV (+EV) betting strategy. Concepts including fair price, Kelly's Criterion and variance are introduced.

Duration: 10 - 15 minutes

What Is Positive EV Betting?

Positive EV betting relies on the concept of expected value (EV). Expected value is the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet over the long term. A positive EV means the bet is profitable, while a negative EV suggests you'll lose money in the long run. To understand +EV betting, let's start with a simple coin toss example.

Coin Toss Example

Imagine a person approaches you on the street, and offers you the chance to bet $1 on the outcome of a coin toss. The coin may land on either of the two sides - heads or tails. Both outcomes have an equal chance of occuring - 50% or 1/2. The person offers you $3 back if the coin lands on 'heads' and $1.60 back if the coin lands on 'tails'.

Out Probabilty Money Back

Heads 50% $3

Tails 50% $1.60

Intuitively we know that the heads option has more value. But how much value?

Expected Value Formula

Expected Value = amount won per bet * probability of winning - amount lost per bet * probability of losing

Expected value for heads:

EV = ($3 - $1) * 50% - $1 * 50%

= $0.50

Expected value for tails:

EV = ($1.60 - $1) * 50% - $1 * 50%

= -$0.20

From our calculations we can see that betting on heads has an expected value of $0.50 and betting on tails has an expected value of -$0.20. This means betting on heads is a positive EV bet, while betting on tails is a negative EV bet. Can you guarantee a profit on a single coin toss? No. But by consistently betting on heads, you have an edge, and over the long run, this strategy will be profitable.

Module 5.2

Positive EV Betting

Expected Value In Reality

In our coin toss example, we could calculate expected value (EV) because we knew the exact 50% probability of landing on heads. In sports betting, we don’t have access to the true probability of an outcome. However, we do know what bookmakers think the probability is - this is reflected in their odds. By analyzing odds across multiple bookmakers, we can estimate a more accurate fair probability, helping us identify +EV betting opportunities.

Bookmakers Probability

As we've learned, odds represent probabilities, but they include a built-in margin (vig) for the bookmaker’s profit. To see what bookmakers think the true probability of an outcome is, we need to remove the margin and convert the adjusted odds into a fair probability.

Probability = 1 / ( odds * margin ) * 100%

How EV Is Calculated

For the NBL match between Sydney Kings and Melbourne United we can see each bookmaker has their own odds for Sydney Kings and Melbourne United to win. We can calculate the probability each bookmaker thinks Sydney Kings has to win.

Example With Pointsbet

Probability = 1 / ( 1.67 * ( 1/1.67 + 1/2.20 ) ) * 100%

= 56.8%

We have calculated Pointsbet thinks Sydney Kings has a 56.8% chance of winning

Wisdom Of The Crowd

Now lets put this win probability into an odds format by calculating the inverse of the win probability. We find the odds to be 1.778. We call this the fair odds as it is an estimate of the most accurate odds without bookmaker vig included. With this fair odds value we are now able to calculate the expected value of each bookmaker's odds for Sydney Kings. We can use the simplified EV formula.

Fair Odds

Now lets put this win probability into an odds format by calculating the inverse of the win probability. We find the odds to be 1.778. We call this the fair odds as it is an estimate of the most accurate odds without bookmaker vig included. With this fair odds value we are now able to calculate the expected value of each bookmaker's odds for Sydney Kings. We can use the simplified EV formula.

EV = ( odds / fair odds - 1 ) * 100%

EV For Sydney Kings Bets

Bookmaker Odds EV

Pointsbet 1.98 11.361%

Bet365 1.65 -7.199%

Sportsbet 1.62 -8.886%

Unibet 1.65 -7.199%

Betr 1.65 -7.199%

Betright 1.66 -6.637%

Dabble 1.67 -6.074%

From our analysis, we see that most bookmaker odds have a negative expected value, except for Ladbrokes, which offers significantly higher odds for Sydney Kings to win.

This is a simple example of how we can identify valuable odds - bets where the odds are high enough to create positive expected value bet.

The WagerWise EV system is built on this foundation but takes it further by incorporating:

• Bookmaker weighting to account for more trusted odds sources.
• Bookmaker confidence analysis to refine probability estimates.
• A more advanced averaging method for greater accuracy.

This system automates the process, helping you find +EV bets effortlessly.

Module 5.3

Positive EV Betting

The Last Puzzle Piece

Placing +EV bets is the foundation of the positive EV betting strategy, but there’s another crucial element: bankroll management.

Your bankroll management strategy determines how much to bet (stake size) based on your total bankroll. For example:

• A $200 bankroll may allow for a $10 stake per bet.
• A $2000 bankroll may allow for a $100 stake per bet.

To maximize value while minimizing risk, we need a method to calculate the optimal stake size for each bet.

Kelly's Criterion

Kelly’s Criterion is widely regarded as the best bankroll management strategy for sports betting. It considers bankroll size, bookmaker odds, and fair odds to determine the optimal stake size for each bet.

The WagerWise +EV Software automatically applies Kelly’s Criterion to calculate precise stake sizes for maximum value and minimized risk.

Additionally, we’ve created a Kelly’s Criterion Calculator to help you easily determine the optimal stake size for +EV betting.

Kelly's Criterion Calculator

Module 5.4

Positive EV Betting

Placing Positive EV Bets

Now that you understand the concept of positive EV betting, let’s walk through placing your first bet using the WagerWise Positive EV Betting Software.

Module 5.5

Positive EV Betting

Variance

Positive EV betting is considered a more advanced strategy because it doesn’t involve hedge bets. Instead, it relies on finding valuable odds and playing the long game.

Since there are no guaranteed wins on each bet, you will experience both winning and losing streaks - this is known as variance.

While you won’t win every bet, long-term profitability is expected because you are consistently taking value with +EV bets.

Variance Showcase

This is what placing bets where the EV is 7.5% may look like.

Looking at the graphs, we see significant short-term fluctuations in the Actual Profit line, reflecting winning and losing streaks due to variance. However, over the long term, the Actual Profit line converges toward the Expected Value, demonstrating that +EV betting remains profitable over time despite short-term swings.

Surviving Variance

This is where Kelly’s Criterion becomes essential. A quality staking system helps you survive losing streaks caused by variance while also maximizing long-term profits. By adjusting stake sizes based on bankroll, odds, and edge, Kelly’s Criterion ensures you stay in the game through bad runs and capitalize on +EV opportunities efficiently.

Module 5.6

Positive EV Betting

Next Steps

You now have everything you need to get started with positive ev betting! Try placing a positive ev bet for yourself and get comfortable with the WagerWise +EV Software.

+EV

After becoming familiar with positive EV betting you can move onto our Advanced Positive EV Module (coming soon).

The Advanced Positive EV Module will teach you how to select the best +EV bets, reduce variance and make the most out of positive EV betting.

Module 6.1

Middle Betting

Module 6

This module introduces middle betting, a strategy that builds on arbitrage betting concepts. If you haven’t completed Module 3 (Arbitrage Betting) yet, we highly recommend doing so first, as it provides the foundation needed to understand and apply middle betting effectively.

Duration: 5 - 10 minutes

The Double Payout

Middle betting works similarly to arbitrage betting, where you place hedge bets to cover all possible outcomes. The key difference is that in middle betting, there’s a chance both bets win, rather than just one - creating an opportunity for higher profits.

In the middle bet example, we place:

• One bet on Green Bay Packers under 4.5
• One bet on Green Bay Packers over 3.5

Like arbitrage betting, at least one bet will always win. However, if the Packers score exactly 4 points, both bets win:

• 4 is over 3.5 (winning the over bet)
• 4 is under 4.5 (winning the under bet)

This is why it’s called middle betting - there’s a middle outcome that allows for a double payout, creating a higher profit opportunity than standard arbitrage.

Module 6.2

Middle Betting

Types Of Middles

Middles exist in all types of total and handicap bets. We can find middles in regular total bets, team total bets, handicap bets and player prop bets.

Qualifying Loss

In middle betting, you won’t always hit the middle outcome where both bets win. If the result falls outside the middle, you could:

• Make a profit (if the odds are favorable)
• Break even
• Take a small loss

This is where Qualifying Loss (QL) comes in. QL helps measure the risk of a middle bet by calculating how much you stand to lose if the middle doesn’t hit.

By understanding QL, you can assess whether a middle bet is worth taking, balancing potential risk and reward.

Module 6.3

Middle Betting

Placing Middle Bets

The process of placing a middle bet using the WagerWise Middles Software is the same process as when placing an arbitrage bet. Refer to the Arbitrage Module for a video walkthrough.

Selecting A Middle Bet

When selecting a middle bet, it's important to consider:

• Qualifying Loss (QL) – A low or positive QL minimizes risk and increases profitability.
• • Size of the Middle – A larger middle increases the probability of hitting both bets for a double payout.

To maximize profits in middle betting, focus on bets with low or positive QL and a large middle, giving you the best chance of a high return with minimal downside.

Middle Size

A large middle offers a higher chance of hitting both bets, making it more valuable. For example:

• Under 5.5 and Over 2.5 → Both bets win if the total is 3, 4, or 5 (wider range).

A small middle has a lower probability of hitting both bets. For example:

• Under 175.5 and Over 174.5 → Both bets win only if the total is exactly 175 (narrow range).

Module 6.4

Middle Betting

Next Steps

You now have everything you need to get started with middle betting! Try placing a middle bet for yourself and get comfortable with the WagerWise Middles Software.

Middles

Once you're comfortable with middle betting, you can move on to our Advanced Hedge Betting Module (coming soon). This module covers unique scenarios you may encounter and techniques to maximize profits.

Module 7.1

Racing

Module 7

This module introduces racing strategies offered by WagerWise. This content will provide you with the knowledge to utilise the RaceWise software. We’ve put together a full video series to go hand-in-hand with this tutorial, so you can watch the strategies in action.

Duration: 20 - 30 minutes

Strategies

There are three strategies available with RaceWise:

Pay Back:

A promotional strategy to take advantage of the 'get a bonus bet back if your horse runs 2nd/3rd' style promotion.

Bonus Bet Conversion:

This strategy allows you to convert bonus bets to cash very quickly at high retention and is an integral part of the 'Pay Back' strategy.

EV:

A non-promotional strategy that exploits bookmaker odds inefficiency.

Lets first learn about Betfair before we take a deeper dive into each of the three strategies now.

Module 7.2

Racing

Betfair

What is Betfair

Betfair is a betting exchange, which differs from a traditional bookmaker in that it doesn't accept bets itself. Instead, it allows users to bet against each other by placing either a back bet or a lay bet on a horse.

A back bet is just like a regular bet at a bookmaker - you're betting on a horse to win. A lay bet, on the other hand, means you're betting against that horse - you're saying it will not win.

For your bet to go through, there must be someone on the other side: a back bet needs a matching lay bet of the same amount, and vice versa. Betfair simply matches these users and takes a commission from the winner.

How we use Betfair

We use Betfair in two key ways: as a benchmark for fair market price to help identify value in bookmaker odds, and as a tool to minimise risk by laying selections to lock in profit or reduce potential losses.

Betfair is a good benchmark because, with adequate liquidity, the odds reflect the true market consensus. Since users (and even bookmakers) are betting against each other and prices adjust based on supply and demand, it provides a more accurate and unbiased representation of a horse's real chances compared to traditional bookmakers.

As for laying, you're betting against a horse to win. By combining a lay bet on Betfair with a regular bet at a bookmaker, you can either lock in a profit or qualify for a bonus bet with minimal risk.

Do I have to lay my bets?

As introduced, placing lay bets is one way to reduce the risk involved in our strategies. However, laying is optional - this approach is often referred to as “no lay.” Not laying your bets has the advantage of higher potential returns, as you avoid Betfair’s commission, and it also makes for a more streamlined betting process. Whether or not you choose to lay your bets depends on your personal risk tolerance. We recommend starting by laying all your bets to better understand how it works, and once you're comfortable, you can decide whether you'd prefer to stop laying. All strategy explanations will cover both approaches - with and without using Betfair to lay bets.

Signup To Betfair

Module 7.3

Racing

Pay Back Introduction

The pay back promotion is a common offer provided by bookmakers. It involves placing a regular win bet on a horse, and if your horse doesn't win but finishes in a specified place (such as 2nd or 3rd), you receive a bonus bet instead of losing your stake. The specific placing conditions vary - some promotions pay back for 2nd only, others for 2nd and 3rd, or even up to 4th or more. Typically, the maximum bonus bet you can receive is $25 or $50, depending on the bookmaker and the promotion.

How the strategy works

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This strategy works by placing a win bet on a horse, and if the horse qualifies for a bonus (like finishing 2nd or 3rd), you convert that bonus bet into real money. The first bet (called the qualifying bet) usually has a negative EV on its own, but the chance of getting and converting a bonus bet makes the overall strategy profitable.

Laying variation

If you're laying your bets, think of it like this: you place a regular win bet with the bookmaker and a lay bet on Betfair to hedge the outcome. This usually results in a small qualifying loss, but if your horse finishes within the required placing (e.g. 2nd or 3rd), you receive a bonus bet - which can be converted into real cash as your profit.

No-lay variation

With no-lay, you don’t hedge the outcome. Instead, you leave the bet as is. If the horse wins, you profit from the initial bet. If it places (and meets the promo conditions), you receive a bonus bet, which can then be converted to real money - either by laying it or not.

Module 7.4

Pay Back How To

The first step in using the Pay Back strategy is to identify which of your bookmakers offer this type of promotion - and what races are available. These offers usually come in two forms: Race-specific promotions, such as: “Get your money back as a bonus if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in Flemington Races 1–6.” Optional Pay Back tokens, where you manually apply the promotion while placing a standard win bet. For example, during the bet placement process, you might be able to select a ‘Pay Back’ option or token for that race. When identifying these promotions, make sure to note the key conditions, such as: Maximum stake limit – e.g. "Max $50" Qualifying placings – e.g. "Horse must finish 2nd or 3rd," or "Only valid if the horse runs 2nd." Also, check for special conditions. A common one is the minimum number of runners – for example, the promotion may only apply if the race has at least 8 runners. This is an especially common condition across most bookmakers for offers covering 2nd or 3rd place finishes.

Settings

Once you've identified the promotions you want to target, head to the Settings section of RaceWise to get started.

In the Settings section of RaceWise, you can customise the tool to match your betting style and preferences. Here’s a quick rundown of the most important options:

• Pays To: The placing condition of your promotion, e.g. for "horse places 2nd or 3rd" put "3
• Lay Percent: Your lay stake percentage: put "0" for no-lay or "100" for full lay
• Retention: This is your expected retention from your bonus bet conversions. If you usually convert your bonuses at around 75% put "75"

Placing A Bet

Now that you've set things up, you're ready to place a bet. The process from here depends on whether you're using the No Lay or Lay strategy.

🟩 Lay Approach

This is the simpler of the two. Open the race page – Click the bookmaker logo next to the bet in RaceWise to be taken directly to the race. Wait until it's close to the race start time – The closer to jump, the more accurate Betfair prices become. This is when the market has likely priced in any late changes, reducing variance. Place your bet – If a bet meets your minimum EV (we recommend at least $5) and the odds are within your preferred range (lower odds help reduce variance), go ahead and place the bet. Once placed:

• If the horse wins, you profit.
• If it loses and qualifies for the promotion, you’ll receive a bonus bet.
• If it loses and doesn’t qualify, you take the loss.

If you receive a bonus bet, you’ll move on to the bonus bet conversion strategy, which we cover in the next section.

🟥 Lay Approach

This method involves more steps but gives you consistent, low-variance results. Prepare both tabs – Have the bookmaker race page and Betfair open and ready. Find a qualifying bet – Once a bet meets your EV criteria, you can place it. Unlike No Lay, you don’t need to wait right until race start, meaning you can place bets 5-10 minutes from the start of the race. Place your lay bet first – Click the lay stake shown in RaceWise to copy it (or click the bookmaker logo to automatically copy the stake). Place the bookmaker bet second – After locking in the lay, place the win bet on the bookmaker. From here:

• If the horse wins, you take a small qualifying loss as your lay bet loses.
• If the horse loses and you get a bonus, move on to the bonus bet conversion step.
• if the horse loses without a bonus, you still just take the small qualifying loss.

Module 7.5

Racing

Bonus Bet Conversion

The Bonus Bet Conversion strategy is designed to turn any type of bonus bet into real cash. You can use it to convert:

• Deposit bonuses
• Promotional bonuses

The key advantage of using this strategy with racing is speed. With races running frequently throughout the day, you can often convert a bonus into real cash in under 5 minutes. It’s a fast, efficient way to unlock the value of your bonuses without waiting for longer-form sports events to settle.

Settings

Here’s a quick rundown of the most important options for the bonus bet conversion strategy:

• Min Retention: This is the minimum retention required for a bet to be displayed. We recommend aiming for at least 70%, as maximizing value from promotions depends on consistently converting your bonuses at high retention
• Lay Percent: Your lay stake percentage: put "0" for no-lay or "100" for full lay. Not laying bonus bets can lead to high variance, especially since the best opportunities often involve high odds selections

Module 7.7

Racing

EV

RaceWise's EV strategy supports three core use cases, each serving a different betting approach:

• Mug betting
• +EV horse betting
• Odds comparison

Let’s take a closer look at each:

Mug Betting

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Mug betting is an essential tactic to use alongside the Pay Back strategy, helping you keep access to promotions for longer. If a bookmaker sees you're only placing Pay Back bets, especially right after creating your account, they’re likely to remove the promotion - because, like us, they understand how valuable it is.

Mug betting means placing normal-looking bets on races without any promotion, so you appear like a regular punter. It's all about managing how your activity looks to the bookmaker.

The key is to maintain a healthy balance between promotional and non-promotional bets. While the ideal ratio can vary depending on the bookmaker, a 1:1 ratio (one mug bet for every Pay Back bet) is a solid rule of thumb.

When placing a mug bet, aim for the highest EV available, even though most will be negative EV. Your goal is to minimize the loss from these bets while keeping your account under the radar.

For example

• If your Pay Back bet has +$9 in EV
• And your mug bet has –$3 in EV
• Then your total EV is +$6

That’s still profitable.

As a general rule, avoid mug bets worse than –$3.00 EV. The higher EV on your promotional bet, the more margin you have for mug losses - but always try to find the least damaging mug bet possible.

+EV Betting

While rare, +EV betting on horses is absolutely possible - and when the opportunity arises, it can be highly profitable. Because bookmakers include a large margin in horse racing markets, finding true +EV bets is uncommon. However, when they do appear, they’re often from:

• Slower or less efficient bookmakers
• Obscure races

The key advantage of these bets is that you can often stake larger amounts, making them extremely valuable when found. The biggest factor in this strategy is the accuracy of the Betfair price, which is what EV is calculated from. This depends on:

• Market liquidity – If there's very little money matched on the selection (e.g. only $10), the price is unreliable.
• Time before the race – Far from jump, prices tend to be volatile and less trustworthy.

If liquidity is too low or the market hasn’t settled, the EV calculation may be inaccurate, and the bet should be avoided. Because of these variables, +EV betting on horses is considered an advanced strategy. You’ll need a solid understanding of:

• • When Betfair prices are reliable
• Which races and bookmakers tend to produce these opportunities

Used properly, this strategy can provide significant edge - but only when the data is strong.

Odds Comparison

We recommend only placing bets when there’s a clear, quantifiable edge over the bookmaker. That said, if you choose to place a bet based on other reasoning or personal methods, it’s still smart to get the best possible odds. This is where the EV system in RaceWise becomes useful - allowing you to compare odds across bookmakers and ensure you're placing your bet with the highest-paying option.

Module 7.best practise

Racing

Best practices and tips

The pay back promotion is a common offer provided by bookmakers. It involves placing a regular win bet on a horse, and if your horse doesn't win but finishes in a specified place (such as 2nd or 3rd), you receive a bonus bet instead of losing your stake. The specific placing conditions vary - some promotions pay back for 2nd only, others for 2nd and 3rd, or even up to 4th or more. Typically, the maximum bonus bet you can receive is $25 or $50, depending on the bookmaker and the promotion.

How the strategy works

The strategy works by placing the

Module 8_1

Sustainability

Module 8

Sustainability

Duration: 5 - 10 minutes

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