Guide - 10 Minute Read

Profitable betting sustainability

staying under the radar

Market Types

Understanding Liquidity

Different markets have varying liquidity levels, affecting how much you can safely stake. High-liquidity markets, like NBA money lines, allow higher stakes (up to $500 per side) because they can absorb large bets without suspicion. On the other hand, low-liquidity markets, such as Total Cards in Serie A, should be approached cautiously. Limit stakes to $50 or less in these markets to avoid triggering account reviews. For instance, you can safely bet $500 on an NBA money line but should avoid doing the same on a niche prop bet in a minor soccer league. Bookmakers closely monitor large bets in low-liquidity markets as they are more likely to distort odds and raise suspicion. Even player props in large leagues such as the NBA, NRL, and AFL must be treated cautiously, as they are lower-liquidity markets.

Same-Game Betting

Avoid Overloading the Same Market

Bookmakers often make mistakes across an entire market, creating multiple profitable opportunities. While it’s tempting to exploit all of them, doing so significantly increases the risk of account restrictions. When a bookmaker identifies an error, they’ll flag accounts with heavy activity in that market. Be selective when placing multiple bets within the same market and on the same bookmaker to mitigate this risk. However, when it is acceptable to bet on the same game multiple times if the bets are across different bookmakers who aren’t connected

Diversify Bet Types

Don’t Stick to One Market

Avoid consistently betting on the same types of markets, such as money lines. Incorporating bets on totals, handicaps, and props into your strategy creates a more organic betting profile and reduces scrutiny. For example, if you primarily bet on money lines, add some prop bets or over/under bets to your portfolio. Diversifying your bets helps you appear as a degen punter rather than an advantage bettor.

Stake Sizes

Why Smaller Stakes Matter

While placing large bets to maximise profits is appealing, keeping your stake sizes modest is a far more sustainable approach. A good guideline is to place bets ranging from $50 to $150, with exceptions that depend on the market, such as an NBA moneyline you could stake up to $500. Player props can usually handle stake sizes up to $100 without raising any alarms. Remember Consistent smaller stake sizes will help you blend in with regular betting patterns, reducing the likelihood of raising red flags with bookmakers. For example, if you usually stake $75 on NBA moneyline bets, consider sticking to similar amounts across other markets rather than suddenly placing a $150 bet on a niche market like Total Cards in Serie A. Smaller, consistent stakes not only minimise attention but also align with casual bettor behaviour.

Stake Rounding

Blending in With Recreational Bettors

As an advantage bettor, it’s natural to calculate precise stake sizes for optimal value and minimal risk. However, placing oddly specific bets, like $73.48, looks unnatural upon review. Instead, round your stakes to whole dollar amounts, especially for bets over $50. Recreational bettors, or casual punters, typically bet in rounded amounts. Adopting this pattern helps you fly under the radar. For example, instead of betting $62.89 on a game, round it to $60, $63 or $65. This small adjustment makes your betting patterns look more typical and less calculated.

Bet Timing

Varying Your Betting Schedule

Placing bets too close to the event’s start time can make you stand out, as recreational bettors often place their wagers hours or even days in advance. To avoid suspicion, mix up your timing and avoid forming predictable patterns. For instance, place some bets the day before an event and others within a few hours of the event. This creates a natural pattern and reduces the risk of appearing too calculated.

Include Non-Advantageous Bets

Blend in With Recreational Bettors

One of the main metrics bookmakers use to identify advantage bettors is the promo/non-promo ratio. Occasionally placing less profitable or even slightly negative EV bets which are called ‘Mugs’ can help disguise your account. Think of these bets as an investment in keeping your account active for longer. When extensively promotional betting a 2:1 mug ratio will slow down the promotion restriction

Promotional Bet Usage

Use Offers Selectively

When taking advantage of promotional offers, avoid always maxing out every promotion. Opt for smaller bonuses or skip some entirely to appear less opportunistic. For example, instead of claiming every $50 bonus, occasionally settle for smaller bonuses like $40 or $25.

Closing Line Value (CLV)

Balancing Profitability and Longevity

One of the primary ways bookmakers identify advantage bettors is by analyzing profit/loss and closing line value (CLV). CLV measures how much higher your odds were compared to the fair odds at the event’s start. Maintaining a strong CLV (above 50%) is essential for long-term profitability as a +EV bettor. While achieving high CLV is non-negotiable for profitability, you can prolong account life by occasionally taking slightly fewer EV bets. For example, if a bet with a high EV looks suspicious, go for a safer alternative with a slightly lower EV and a less obscure market. This approach reduces short-term profits but allows you to stay profitable for longer.

Priming an account

Making sure to warm up a new account

Bookmakers carefully observe a brand-new account for the first week or two. The correct measures must be taken to increase the longevity of your accounts.
How do you do this?
You can place a handful of negative expected value bets, and run up an account loss of $100-300. To make sure you only lose a few dollars rather than the full amount, you can find slightly negative bets via the arbitrage software which allows you to hedge your bet on another bookmaker. It is also wise to limit your promotion usage within the first 2 weeks to have a healthy promo/non-promo ratio.

Manage Withdrawals and Deposits

Stay Under the Radar

Large, frequent withdrawals or deposits can trigger account reviews. Keep your transactions moderate and consistent to align with typical bettor behaviour. For example, instead of withdrawing $500-1000 in one transaction, spread it out over multiple smaller withdrawals, such as $100 at a time.

Final takeaways

Ultimately accounts are going to happen no matter what, it’s a part of the game. Bookmakers hate winners but that doesn’t mean you can extract a lot of value from them before that happens. All of these tips should be considered but the most important ones are.

Priming an account.
Limit large withdrawals
Not always beating CLV
Monitor your stake sizes